Year 2011 will always be remembered as the "year of liberty" in the history of the Arab world. The Arab spring revolutions face an uncertian future in presence of the recent developments though. Will Military Junta become new "Mubarak"?? Or what are the true intentions of the new government in Libya?? Or whether Syrian revolution had been smothered?? However, answer to these questions comes from history.
When we look at history and analyze the patterns, we can know a great deal about the future of the Arab revolutions. Each revolution goes through certian phases:
Phase I: Each revolution starts with a "reaction" from a particular section of society which had been most dissatisfied from the ruling regime. It was intellectuals and workers in Russia, Third estate in France, and Islamists in the Arab world.
Phase II: The primary "reaction" to this "reactionary class" by any regime is to smother it in its earliest stages. However a phase is reached when the ruling regime is no longer yielding and the "reactionary class" is no longer willing to submit.
PHASE III: This results in violence from both sides against each other, leading to changes in the existing government. This temporary government is called an "interim government" .
PHASE IV: This government is born out of the "shadows" of the previous regime.(the Jacobian club in France and Provisional government in Russia). So it is still trying to "control" the "reactionary class". Therefore it starts using indiscriminate force against all the sections of society alienating all the sections in the process. Thus whole of the society sides with the reactionary class, uprooting the "interim government"as well and therefore leading to "Complete revolution".
Howver each revolution does not passes through the all phases smoothly. Often people mistake Phase III i.e. uprooting of the earlier regime as the "complete revolution". However often the "interim government" is no better than the earlier govenrment. That is why Africa found itself in the grips of dictators when Imperialists left.
Both Libya and Egypt are in the grips of "interim government" today i.e.struck in Phase III. These" interim governments" are no better than the earlier regimes. A new cycle of violence against "interim regime" is inevitable in Arab world. The revolution will soon enter Phase IV, when whole sections of society will side with the "reactionary class" in order to bring the revolution .
However in Syria the revolutionaries are still struck in "phase II" . Untill and unless they find international support and the supports from sections within the society (including the different sects in Syria), Assad is not going anywhere.
The "Arab spring" is not over yet though....it still has to wither few Tornados more before it blooms forever...
